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Will it freeze in Alfred in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Wed, Nov 11: 31°F (Wed, Nov 11, 6:00 PM EST to Thu, Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 47°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 47°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 40°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Sat, Nov 7 36°F Frost possible · Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 35°F Frost possible · Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 34°F Frost possible · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 31°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Alfred
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 10, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Alfred. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 14 · May 31 · Jun 14 | Sep 3 · Sep 19 · Oct 1 | 109 days |
| 32°F freeze | May 1 · May 18 · Jun 1 | Sep 17 · Oct 1 · Oct 13 | 135 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 22 · May 6 · May 22 | Sep 25 · Oct 10 · Oct 28 | 158 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Alfred
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Alfred, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Alfred (station USC00300085, elevation 1,924 ft), 2.1 mi from Alfred. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Alfred
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hornell, NY | 8.7 mi | May 11 | Oct 8 |
| Bath, NY | 25 mi | May 12 | Oct 3 |
| Olean, NY | 35 mi | May 7 | Oct 11 |
| Geneseo, NY | 38 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 17 |
| Corning, NY | 39 mi | May 17 | Oct 2 |
| Penn Yan, NY | 47 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 22 |
| Bradford, PA | 48 mi | May 18 | Oct 4 |
| Salamanca, NY | 48 mi | May 18 | Oct 1 |
| Horseheads, NY | 50 mi | May 9 | Oct 9 |
| Canandaigua, NY | 51 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 22 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Alfred?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Alfred is around May 18. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after June 1, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after May 1.
When is the first frost in Alfred?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 1. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 17 and a 90% chance by October 13.
Can it frost in Alfred after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 31.
What growing zone is Alfred?
Alfred is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −15 to −10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 14802. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze