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Will it freeze in Hornell in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tue, Nov 10: 32°F (Tue, Nov 10, 6:00 PM EST to Wed, Nov 11, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 45°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 38°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Sat, Nov 7 36°F Frost possible · Rain Showers Likely
- Sun, Nov 8 33°F Frost possible · Chance Light Rain
- Mon, Nov 9 35°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 32°F Freeze · Slight Chance Light Rain
- Wed, Nov 11 28°F Hard freeze · Slight Chance Light Rain
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Hornell
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 23, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Hornell Almond Dam. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 7 · May 24 · Jun 6 | Sep 13 · Sep 28 · Oct 9 | 126 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 28 · May 11 · May 26 | Sep 26 · Oct 8 · Oct 25 | 150 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 18 · May 1 · May 16 | Oct 5 · Oct 23 · Nov 7 | 174 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Hornell Almond Dam
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Hornell, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Hornell Almond Dam (station USC00303983, elevation 1,325 ft), 2.4 mi from Hornell. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Hornell
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred, NY | 8.7 mi | May 18 | Oct 1 |
| Bath, NY | 17 mi | May 12 | Oct 3 |
| Geneseo, NY | 33 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 17 |
| Corning, NY | 34 mi | May 17 | Oct 2 |
| Penn Yan, NY | 39 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 22 |
| Canandaigua, NY | 43 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 22 |
| Olean, NY | 43 mi | May 7 | Oct 11 |
| Horseheads, NY | 44 mi | May 9 | Oct 9 |
| Elmira, NY | 47 mi | May 6 | Oct 11 |
| Geneva, NY | 50 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 21 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Hornell?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Hornell is around May 11. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 26, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 28.
When is the first frost in Hornell?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 8. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 26 and a 90% chance by October 25.
Can it frost in Hornell after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 24.
What growing zone is Hornell?
Hornell is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −15 to −10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 14843. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze