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Will it freeze in Horseheads in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tue, Nov 10: 32°F (Tue, Nov 10, 6:00 PM EST to Wed, Nov 11, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 45°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 45°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy then Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 43°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers Likely
- Sat, Nov 7 37°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 34°F Frost possible · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 33°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 32°F Freeze · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 28°F Hard freeze · Slight Chance Rain Showers
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Horseheads
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 23, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Elmira Corning Regional Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 3 · May 22 · Jun 4 | Sep 15 · Sep 29 · Oct 9 | 128 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 26 · May 9 · May 24 | Sep 28 · Oct 9 · Oct 24 | 151 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 15 · Apr 29 · May 15 | Oct 7 · Oct 23 · Nov 5 | 174 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Elmira Corning Regional Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Horseheads, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Elmira Corning Regional Airport (station USW00014748, elevation 955 ft), 3.2 mi from Horseheads. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Horseheads
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elmira, NY | 5.6 mi | May 6 | Oct 11 |
| Corning, NY | 12 mi | May 17 | Oct 2 |
| Sayre, PA | 21 mi | May 6 | Oct 10 |
| Ithaca, NY | 25 mi | May 11 | Oct 3 |
| Bath, NY | 27 mi | May 12 | Oct 3 |
| Penn Yan, NY | 36 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 22 |
| Endicott, NY | 40 mi | May 5 | Oct 12 |
| Hornell, NY | 44 mi | May 11 | Oct 8 |
| Johnson City, NY | 45 mi | May 2 | Oct 11 |
| Cortland, NY | 45 mi | May 7 | Oct 8 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Horseheads?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Horseheads is around May 9. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 24, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 26.
When is the first frost in Horseheads?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 9. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 28 and a 90% chance by October 24.
Can it frost in Horseheads after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 22.
What growing zone is Horseheads?
Horseheads is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 14845. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze