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Will it freeze in Watertown in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Wed, Nov 11: 27°F (Wed, Nov 11, 6:00 PM EST to Thu, Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 49°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 42°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers Likely
- Sat, Nov 7 35°F Frost possible · Rain Showers Likely
- Sun, Nov 8 34°F Frost possible · Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 33°F Frost possible · Chance Rain Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 27°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Watertown
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 25, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Watertown. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 30 · May 13 · May 27 | Sep 21 · Oct 2 · Oct 17 | 143 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 20 · May 2 · May 17 | Oct 1 · Oct 13 · Oct 28 | 163 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 8 · Apr 22 · May 6 | Oct 10 · Oct 25 · Nov 7 | 184 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Watertown
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Watertown, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Watertown (station USC00309000, elevation 497 ft), 1.7 mi from Watertown. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Watertown
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oswego, NY | 47 mi | Apr 22 | Oct 29 |
| Fulton, NY | 52 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 24 |
| Ogdensburg, NY | 55 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 10 |
| Rome, NY | 56 mi | May 6 | Oct 13 |
| Canton, NY | 57 mi | May 9 | Sep 30 |
| North Syracuse, NY | 59 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 19 |
| Baldwinsville, NY | 60 mi | May 4 | Oct 11 |
| Oneida, NY | 63 mi | May 1 | Oct 13 |
| Solvay, NY | 65 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 19 |
| Syracuse, NY | 65 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 19 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Watertown?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Watertown is around May 2. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 17, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 20.
When is the first frost in Watertown?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 13. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 1 and a 90% chance by October 28.
Can it frost in Watertown after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 13.
What growing zone is Watertown?
Watertown is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −20 to −15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 13601. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze