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Will it freeze in Baldwinsville in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Wed, Nov 11: 30°F (Wed, Nov 11, 6:00 PM EST to Thu, Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 47°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 47°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 43°F Above 36°F · Cloudy then Rain Showers Likely
- Sat, Nov 7 39°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 36°F Frost possible · Chance Light Rain
- Mon, Nov 9 36°F Frost possible · Slight Chance Light Rain
- Tue, Nov 10 34°F Frost possible · Chance Light Rain
- Wed, Nov 11 30°F Freeze · Slight Chance Light Rain
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Baldwinsville
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 29, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Brewerton Lock 23. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 1 · May 16 · May 31 | Sep 18 · Sep 29 · Oct 14 | 134 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 22 · May 4 · May 19 | Sep 27 · Oct 11 · Oct 29 | 158 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 11 · Apr 24 · May 8 | Oct 9 · Oct 29 · Nov 10 | 184 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Brewerton Lock 23
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Baldwinsville, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Brewerton Lock 23 (station USC00300870, elevation 377 ft), 9.0 mi from Baldwinsville. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Baldwinsville
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solvay, NY | 9.3 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 19 |
| North Syracuse, NY | 11 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 19 |
| Fulton, NY | 12 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 24 |
| Syracuse, NY | 13 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 19 |
| Auburn, NY | 19 mi | May 2 | Oct 18 |
| Oswego, NY | 22 mi | Apr 22 | Oct 29 |
| Oneida, NY | 34 mi | May 1 | Oct 13 |
| Geneva, NY | 39 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 21 |
| Newark, NY | 39 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 21 |
| Cortland, NY | 39 mi | May 7 | Oct 8 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Baldwinsville?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Baldwinsville is around May 4. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 19, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 22.
When is the first frost in Baldwinsville?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 11. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 27 and a 90% chance by October 29.
Can it frost in Baldwinsville after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 16.
What growing zone is Baldwinsville?
Baldwinsville is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 13027. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze