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Will it freeze in Canton in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sun, Nov 8: 32°F (Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 PM EST to Mon, Nov 9, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 48°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 41°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Sat, Nov 7 37°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers Likely
- Sun, Nov 8 32°F Freeze · Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 33°F Frost possible · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Tue, Nov 10 30°F Freeze · Chance Rain Showers then Slight Chance Rain And Snow Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 25°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Canton
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 11, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Canton 4 SE. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 7 · May 22 · Jun 7 | Sep 2 · Sep 19 · Oct 3 | 118 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 27 · May 9 · May 25 | Sep 16 · Sep 30 · Oct 14 | 142 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 18 · Apr 30 · May 14 | Sep 25 · Oct 11 · Oct 31 | 165 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Canton 4 SE
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Canton, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Canton 4 SE (station USW00014743, elevation 448 ft), 3.2 mi from Canton. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Canton
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Potsdam, NY | 9.9 mi | May 5 | Oct 8 |
| Ogdensburg, NY | 16 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 10 |
| Massena, NY | 26 mi | May 8 | Oct 1 |
| Malone, NY | 47 mi | May 6 | Oct 4 |
| Watertown, NY | 57 mi | May 2 | Oct 13 |
| Plattsburgh, NY | 85 mi | May 6 | Oct 5 |
| Burlington, VT | 95 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 15 |
| Rome, NY | 96 mi | May 6 | Oct 13 |
| Winooski, VT | 98 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 15 |
| South Burlington, VT | 98 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 15 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Canton?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Canton is around May 9. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 25, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 27.
When is the first frost in Canton?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around September 30. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 16 and a 90% chance by October 14.
Can it frost in Canton after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 22.
What growing zone is Canton?
Canton is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 4b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −25 to −20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 13617. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze