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Will it freeze in Wharton in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Wharton during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 62°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 62°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 61°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Patchy Fog
- Sat, Nov 7 58°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
- Sun, Nov 8 52°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 52°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Tue, Nov 10 54°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 56°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Wharton
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 25, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at El Campo. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 15 · Mar 7 · Mar 30 | Nov 4 · Nov 25 · Dec 13 | 259 days |
| 32°F freeze | Jan 22 · Feb 23 · Mar 16 | Nov 15 · Dec 5 · Jan 4 | 287 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 29 · Feb 2 · Mar 5 | Nov 30 · Dec 25 · Jan 27 | 324 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at El Campo
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Wharton, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: El Campo (station USC00412786, elevation 110 ft), 13 mi from Wharton. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Wharton
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Campo, TX | 13 mi | Feb 23 | Dec 5 |
| Rosenberg, TX | 24 mi | Feb 9 | Dec 13 |
| Bay City, TX | 25 mi | Feb 20 | Dec 3 |
| Richmond, TX | 27 mi | Feb 9 | Dec 13 |
| Fulshear, TX | 29 mi | Feb 9 | Dec 13 |
| Sealy, TX | 31 mi | Feb 28 | Nov 30 |
| Brookshire, TX | 34 mi | Feb 28 | Nov 30 |
| Sugar Land, TX | 34 mi | Feb 9 | Dec 13 |
| Katy, TX | 36 mi | Feb 2 | Dec 11 |
| Missouri City, TX | 38 mi | Feb 15 | Dec 6 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Wharton?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Wharton is around February 23. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 16, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after January 22.
When is the first frost in Wharton?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 5. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 15 and a 90% chance by January 4.
Can it frost in Wharton after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 7.
What growing zone is Wharton?
Wharton is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 77488. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze