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Will it freeze in Katy in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Katy during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 61°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 61°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 60°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Patchy Fog
- Sat, Nov 7 56°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
- Sun, Nov 8 51°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 51°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Tue, Nov 10 53°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 55°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Katy
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is January 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Houston Sugarland Mem. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Jan 25 · Feb 26 · Mar 21 | Nov 7 · Nov 27 · Dec 24 | 277 days |
| 32°F freeze | Dec 28 · Feb 2 · Mar 7 | Nov 20 · Dec 11 · Jan 16 | 318 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 17 · Jan 18 · Feb 23 | Dec 4 · Jan 1 · Feb 2 | 356 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Houston Sugarland Mem
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Katy, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Houston Sugarland Mem (station USW00012977, elevation 82 ft), 16 mi from Katy. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Katy
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brookshire, TX | 6.8 mi | Feb 28 | Nov 30 |
| Fulshear, TX | 7.5 mi | Feb 9 | Dec 13 |
| Richmond, TX | 16 mi | Feb 9 | Dec 13 |
| Rosenberg, TX | 17 mi | Feb 9 | Dec 13 |
| Jersey Village, TX | 17 mi | Feb 19 | Dec 3 |
| Sugar Land, TX | 19 mi | Feb 9 | Dec 13 |
| Sealy, TX | 19 mi | Feb 28 | Nov 30 |
| Stafford, TX | 20 mi | Feb 2 | Dec 11 |
| Waller, TX | 21 mi | Feb 28 | Dec 2 |
| Prairie View, TX | 22 mi | Feb 28 | Dec 2 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Katy?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Katy is around February 2. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 7, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after December 28.
When is the first frost in Katy?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 11. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 20 and a 90% chance by January 16.
Can it frost in Katy after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after February 26.
What growing zone is Katy?
Katy is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 20 to 25°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 77494. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · UV index today in Katy · frost vs. freeze