Checking current alerts… View NWS forecast and alerts.
Will it freeze in Stafford in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Stafford during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 64°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 64°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 64°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 59°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
- Sun, Nov 8 54°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 54°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Tue, Nov 10 56°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 58°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Stafford
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is January 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Houston Sugarland Mem. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Jan 25 · Feb 26 · Mar 21 | Nov 7 · Nov 27 · Dec 24 | 277 days |
| 32°F freeze | Dec 28 · Feb 2 · Mar 7 | Nov 20 · Dec 11 · Jan 16 | 318 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 17 · Jan 18 · Feb 23 | Dec 4 · Jan 1 · Feb 2 | 356 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Houston Sugarland Mem
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Stafford, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Houston Sugarland Mem (station USW00012977, elevation 82 ft), 5.5 mi from Stafford. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Stafford
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sugar Land, TX | 5.0 mi | Feb 9 | Dec 13 |
| Missouri City, TX | 5.0 mi | Feb 15 | Dec 6 |
| Bellaire, TX | 8.1 mi | Feb 2 | Dec 25 |
| West University Place, TX | 9.9 mi | Feb 2 | Dec 25 |
| Richmond, TX | 12 mi | Feb 9 | Dec 13 |
| Houston, TX | 16 mi | Feb 2 | Dec 25 |
| Manvel, TX | 16 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 27 |
| Iowa Colony, TX | 16 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 27 |
| Pearland, TX | 16 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 27 |
| Rosenberg, TX | 16 mi | Feb 9 | Dec 13 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Stafford?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Stafford is around February 2. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 7, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after December 28.
When is the first frost in Stafford?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 11. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 20 and a 90% chance by January 16.
Can it frost in Stafford after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after February 26.
What growing zone is Stafford?
Stafford is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 77477. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze