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Will it freeze in Bay City in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Bay City during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 63°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 63°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 61°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Patchy Fog
- Sat, Nov 7 57°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
- Sun, Nov 8 52°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 52°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Tue, Nov 10 54°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 56°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Bay City
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 22, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Bay City Wtr Wks. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 11 · Mar 7 · Apr 1 | Nov 3 · Nov 20 · Dec 9 | 258 days |
| 32°F freeze | Jan 19 · Feb 20 · Mar 15 | Nov 10 · Dec 3 · Jan 1 | 290 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 27 · Jan 31 · Mar 5 | Nov 24 · Dec 22 · Jan 23 | 329 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Bay City Wtr Wks
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Bay City, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Bay City Wtr Wks (station USC00410569, elevation 52 ft), 0.9 mi from Bay City. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Bay City
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Campo, TX | 24 mi | Feb 23 | Dec 5 |
| Wharton, TX | 25 mi | Feb 23 | Dec 5 |
| Lake Jackson, TX | 31 mi | Feb 13 | Dec 8 |
| Clute, TX | 34 mi | Jan 27 | Jan 1 |
| Angleton, TX | 35 mi | Jan 29 | Dec 31 |
| Freeport, TX | 37 mi | Jan 27 | Jan 1 |
| Rosenberg, TX | 40 mi | Feb 9 | Dec 13 |
| Edna, TX | 42 mi | Feb 18 | Dec 4 |
| Richmond, TX | 43 mi | Feb 9 | Dec 13 |
| Iowa Colony, TX | 45 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 27 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Bay City?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Bay City is around February 20. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 15, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after January 19.
When is the first frost in Bay City?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 3. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 10 and a 90% chance by January 1.
Can it frost in Bay City after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 7.
What growing zone is Bay City?
Bay City is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 77414. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze