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Will it freeze in San Elizario in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in San Elizario during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 52°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 52°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 53°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers Likely
- Sat, Nov 7 48°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 46°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in San Elizario
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 14, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Tornillo 2 Sse. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 23 · Apr 9 · Apr 27 | Oct 16 · Oct 29 · Nov 9 | 201 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 5 · Mar 21 · Apr 9 | Oct 24 · Nov 6 · Nov 18 | 227 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 18 · Mar 5 · Mar 20 | Nov 1 · Nov 14 · Nov 27 | 252 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Tornillo 2 Sse
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for San Elizario, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Tornillo 2 Sse (station USC00419088, elevation 3,525 ft), 17 mi from San Elizario. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near San Elizario
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Socorro, TX | 4.3 mi | Mar 2 | Nov 20 |
| Horizon City, TX | 8.1 mi | Mar 2 | Nov 20 |
| El Paso, TX | 21 mi | Mar 2 | Nov 20 |
| Sunland Park, NM | 26 mi | Mar 23 | Nov 11 |
| Anthony, NM | 36 mi | Feb 28 | Nov 20 |
| Las Cruces, NM | 60 mi | Mar 12 | Nov 13 |
| Alamogordo, NM | 92 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 18 |
| Deming, NM | 99 mi | Apr 7 | Nov 3 |
| Ruidoso, NM | 127 mi | May 11 | Oct 5 |
| Truth or Consequences, NM | 129 mi | Mar 22 | Nov 9 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in San Elizario?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in San Elizario is around March 21. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 9, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 5.
When is the first frost in San Elizario?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 6. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 24 and a 90% chance by November 18.
Can it frost in San Elizario after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 9.
What growing zone is San Elizario?
San Elizario is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 15 to 20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 79849. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze