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Will it freeze in Warren in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sun, Nov 8: 32°F (Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 PM EST to Mon, Nov 9, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 46°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 46°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 37°F Above 36°F · Light Rain Likely
- Sat, Nov 7 34°F Frost possible · Light Rain Likely
- Sun, Nov 8 32°F Freeze · Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 32°F Freeze · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 29°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Warren
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 2, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Warren. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 30 · May 15 · May 31 | Sep 28 · Oct 8 · Oct 22 | 145 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 20 · May 4 · May 22 | Oct 6 · Oct 21 · Nov 4 | 168 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 8 · Apr 23 · May 11 | Oct 18 · Nov 2 · Nov 17 | 192 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Warren
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Warren, PA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Warren (station USC00369298, elevation 1,210 ft), 0.4 mi from Warren. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Warren
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamestown, NY | 18 mi | May 8 | Oct 13 |
| Corry, PA | 26 mi | May 7 | Oct 10 |
| Bradford, PA | 27 mi | May 18 | Oct 4 |
| Salamanca, NY | 31 mi | May 18 | Oct 1 |
| Titusville, PA | 31 mi | May 12 | Oct 10 |
| Olean, NY | 40 mi | May 7 | Oct 11 |
| Oil City, PA | 41 mi | May 2 | Oct 23 |
| St. Marys, PA | 42 mi | May 14 | Oct 6 |
| Fredonia, NY | 42 mi | Apr 25 | Nov 1 |
| Dunkirk, NY | 45 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 23 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Warren?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Warren is around May 4. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 22, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 20.
When is the first frost in Warren?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 21. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 6 and a 90% chance by November 4.
Can it frost in Warren after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 15.
What growing zone is Warren?
Warren is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 16365. See growing zones in Pennsylvania.
More: all Pennsylvania frost dates · Pennsylvania growing zones · frost vs. freeze