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Will it freeze in Fredonia in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Fredonia during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 49°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
3 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Chance Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 38°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Sat, Nov 7 36°F Frost possible · Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Fredonia
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 12, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Fredonia. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 23 · May 6 · May 21 | Oct 2 · Oct 16 · Nov 1 | 162 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 12 · Apr 25 · May 9 | Oct 13 · Nov 1 · Nov 16 | 185 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 1 · Apr 14 · Apr 27 | Oct 30 · Nov 12 · Nov 30 | 211 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Fredonia
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Fredonia, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Fredonia (station USC00303033, elevation 760 ft), 1.2 mi from Fredonia. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Fredonia
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkirk, NY | 2.5 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 23 |
| Jamestown, NY | 24 mi | May 8 | Oct 13 |
| Hamburg, NY | 32 mi | May 4 | Oct 17 |
| Lackawanna, NY | 37 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Salamanca, NY | 37 mi | May 18 | Oct 1 |
| Corry, PA | 39 mi | May 7 | Oct 10 |
| Buffalo, NY | 39 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Warren, PA | 42 mi | May 4 | Oct 21 |
| East Aurora, NY | 43 mi | May 7 | Oct 10 |
| Kenmore, NY | 43 mi | May 6 | Oct 15 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Fredonia?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Fredonia is around April 25. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 9, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 12.
When is the first frost in Fredonia?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 1. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 13 and a 90% chance by November 16.
Can it frost in Fredonia after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 6.
What growing zone is Fredonia?
Fredonia is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 14063. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze