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Will it freeze in East Aurora in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in East Aurora during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 49°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Chance Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 41°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Sat, Nov 7 38°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 40°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in East Aurora
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 24, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Wales. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 5 · May 20 · Jun 1 | Sep 17 · Sep 29 · Oct 12 | 132 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 25 · May 7 · May 23 | Sep 27 · Oct 10 · Oct 26 | 155 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 14 · Apr 28 · May 13 | Oct 7 · Oct 24 · Nov 9 | 179 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Wales
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for East Aurora, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Wales (station USC00308910, elevation 1,135 ft), 2.4 mi from East Aurora. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near East Aurora
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster, NY | 9.3 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Depew, NY | 11 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Hamburg, NY | 11 mi | May 4 | Oct 17 |
| Lackawanna, NY | 12 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Williamsville, NY | 15 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Buffalo, NY | 15 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Kenmore, NY | 19 mi | May 6 | Oct 15 |
| Tonawanda, NY | 22 mi | May 6 | Oct 15 |
| North Tonawanda, NY | 24 mi | May 6 | Oct 15 |
| Batavia, NY | 27 mi | May 3 | Oct 16 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in East Aurora?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in East Aurora is around May 7. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 23, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 25.
When is the first frost in East Aurora?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 10. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 27 and a 90% chance by October 26.
Can it frost in East Aurora after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 20.
What growing zone is East Aurora?
East Aurora is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 14052. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze