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Will it freeze in Lancaster in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Wed, Nov 11: 32°F (Wed, Nov 11, 6:00 PM EST to Thu, Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 49°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Chance Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 40°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Sat, Nov 7 36°F Frost possible · Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 36°F Frost possible · Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 40°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 35°F Frost possible · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 32°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Lancaster
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 6, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Buffalo. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 22 · May 4 · May 19 | Sep 30 · Oct 13 · Oct 27 | 160 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 11 · Apr 24 · May 9 | Oct 10 · Oct 26 · Nov 9 | 183 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 1 · Apr 13 · Apr 27 | Oct 25 · Nov 6 · Nov 22 | 208 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Buffalo
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Lancaster, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Buffalo (station USW00014733, elevation 693 ft), 4.8 mi from Lancaster. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Lancaster
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Depew, NY | 1.9 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Williamsville, NY | 5.6 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| East Aurora, NY | 9.3 mi | May 7 | Oct 10 |
| Buffalo, NY | 9.9 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Lackawanna, NY | 9.9 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Kenmore, NY | 11 mi | May 6 | Oct 15 |
| Tonawanda, NY | 13 mi | May 6 | Oct 15 |
| North Tonawanda, NY | 14 mi | May 6 | Oct 15 |
| Hamburg, NY | 15 mi | May 4 | Oct 17 |
| Lockport, NY | 19 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 26 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Lancaster?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Lancaster is around April 24. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 9, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 11.
When is the first frost in Lancaster?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 26. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 10 and a 90% chance by November 9.
Can it frost in Lancaster after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 4.
What growing zone is Lancaster?
Lancaster is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 14043. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze