Checking current alerts… View NWS forecast and alerts.
Will it freeze in Tonawanda in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Thu, Nov 12: 32°F (Thu, Nov 12, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 13, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 39°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM EST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 39°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers Likely
- Sat, Nov 7 39°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 40°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 43°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 38°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 34°F Frost possible · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Thu, Nov 12 32°F Freeze · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Slight Chance Rain And Snow Showers
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Tonawanda
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 29, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at N Tonawanda. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 2 · May 15 · May 27 | Sep 20 · Oct 2 · Oct 16 | 140 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 24 · May 6 · May 19 | Sep 30 · Oct 15 · Oct 30 | 160 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 12 · Apr 26 · May 10 | Oct 12 · Oct 29 · Nov 10 | 184 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at N Tonawanda
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Tonawanda, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: N Tonawanda (station USC00306047, elevation 578 ft), 3.3 mi from Tonawanda. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Tonawanda
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Tonawanda, NY | 2.5 mi | May 6 | Oct 15 |
| Kenmore, NY | 3.1 mi | May 6 | Oct 15 |
| Williamsville, NY | 8.1 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Buffalo, NY | 8.1 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Niagara Falls, NY | 8.7 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 25 |
| Depew, NY | 11 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Lancaster, NY | 13 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Lackawanna, NY | 14 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Lockport, NY | 14 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 26 |
| Hamburg, NY | 20 mi | May 4 | Oct 17 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Tonawanda?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Tonawanda is around May 6. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 19, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 24.
When is the first frost in Tonawanda?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 15. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 30 and a 90% chance by October 30.
Can it frost in Tonawanda after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 15.
What growing zone is Tonawanda?
Tonawanda is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 14150. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze