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Will it freeze in Niagara Falls in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Niagara Falls during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 50°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
3 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 50°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 40°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Sat, Nov 7 36°F Frost possible · Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 42°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Niagara Falls
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 5, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Niagara Falls. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 24 · May 6 · May 19 | Sep 28 · Oct 11 · Oct 25 | 156 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 13 · Apr 26 · May 11 | Oct 7 · Oct 25 · Nov 7 | 179 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 1 · Apr 15 · Apr 30 | Oct 22 · Nov 5 · Nov 21 | 204 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Niagara Falls
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Niagara Falls, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Niagara Falls (station USC00305840, elevation 588 ft), 2.2 mi from Niagara Falls. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Niagara Falls
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Tonawanda, NY | 8.1 mi | May 6 | Oct 15 |
| Tonawanda, NY | 8.7 mi | May 6 | Oct 15 |
| Kenmore, NY | 11 mi | May 6 | Oct 15 |
| Buffalo, NY | 16 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Williamsville, NY | 17 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Lockport, NY | 17 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 26 |
| Depew, NY | 20 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Lackawanna, NY | 21 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Lancaster, NY | 22 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Hamburg, NY | 27 mi | May 4 | Oct 17 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Niagara Falls?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Niagara Falls is around April 26. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 11, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 13.
When is the first frost in Niagara Falls?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 25. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 7 and a 90% chance by November 7.
Can it frost in Niagara Falls after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 6.
What growing zone is Niagara Falls?
Niagara Falls is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 14301. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · UV index today in Niagara Falls · frost vs. freeze