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Will it freeze in Liberty in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Wed, Nov 11: 30°F (Wed, Nov 11, 6:00 PM EST to Thu, Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 52°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 52°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 45°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 39°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers Likely
- Sun, Nov 8 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 33°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 34°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 30°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Liberty
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 20, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Liberty 1 NE. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 6 · May 20 · Jun 2 | Sep 15 · Sep 27 · Oct 9 | 129 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 24 · May 9 · May 23 | Sep 24 · Oct 5 · Oct 23 | 149 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 11 · Apr 27 · May 12 | Oct 3 · Oct 20 · Nov 6 | 175 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Liberty 1 NE
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Liberty, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Liberty 1 NE (station USC00304731, elevation 1,580 ft), 0.4 mi from Liberty. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Liberty
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monticello, NY | 11 mi | May 7 | Oct 7 |
| Port Jervis, NY | 29 mi | May 5 | Oct 10 |
| Middletown, NY | 29 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 22 |
| Walden, NY | 33 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 11 |
| New Paltz, NY | 34 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 27 |
| Goshen, NY | 35 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 22 |
| Washingtonville, NY | 40 mi | May 1 | Oct 11 |
| Kingston, NY | 40 mi | May 14 | Sep 28 |
| Carbondale, PA | 42 mi | May 14 | Oct 1 |
| Warwick, NY | 42 mi | May 1 | Oct 12 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Liberty?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Liberty is around May 9. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 23, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 24.
When is the first frost in Liberty?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 5. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 24 and a 90% chance by October 23.
Can it frost in Liberty after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 20.
What growing zone is Liberty?
Liberty is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 12754. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze