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Will it freeze in Warwick in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Wed, Nov 11: 30°F (Wed, Nov 11, 6:00 PM EST to Thu, Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 59°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 59°F Above 36°F · Light Rain
- Fri, Nov 6 47°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 41°F Above 36°F · Chance Light Rain
- Sun, Nov 8 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 30°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Warwick
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 25, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Sussex Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 27 · May 13 · May 28 | Sep 20 · Oct 2 · Oct 15 | 142 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 19 · May 1 · May 18 | Sep 30 · Oct 12 · Oct 28 | 164 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 4 · Apr 19 · May 4 | Oct 9 · Oct 25 · Nov 7 | 188 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Sussex Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Warwick, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Sussex Airport (station USW00054793, elevation 421 ft), 14 mi from Warwick. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Warwick
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monroe, NY | 9.9 mi | Apr 10 | Nov 1 |
| Goshen, NY | 9.9 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 22 |
| Ringwood, NJ | 11 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 23 |
| Kiryas Joel, NY | 11 mi | Apr 10 | Nov 1 |
| Middletown, NY | 14 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 22 |
| Woodbury, NY | 14 mi | Apr 10 | Nov 1 |
| Suffern, NY | 15 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 23 |
| Wanaque, NJ | 15 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 23 |
| Bloomingdale, NJ | 15 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 23 |
| Washingtonville, NY | 16 mi | May 1 | Oct 11 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Warwick?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Warwick is around May 1. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 18, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 19.
When is the first frost in Warwick?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 12. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 30 and a 90% chance by October 28.
Can it frost in Warwick after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 13.
What growing zone is Warwick?
Warwick is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 10990. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze