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Will it freeze in Monticello in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Wed, Nov 11: 29°F (Wed, Nov 11, 6:00 PM EST to Thu, Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 53°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 53°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers Likely
- Fri, Nov 6 44°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 40°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers Likely
- Sun, Nov 8 35°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy then Slight Chance Light Rain
- Mon, Nov 9 33°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 29°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Monticello
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 20, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Rock Hill 3 SW. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 3 · May 19 · Jun 1 | Sep 15 · Sep 28 · Oct 9 | 131 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 25 · May 7 · May 22 | Sep 25 · Oct 7 · Oct 22 | 152 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 15 · Apr 27 · May 10 | Oct 4 · Oct 20 · Nov 4 | 176 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Rock Hill 3 SW
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Monticello, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Rock Hill 3 SW (station USC00307210, elevation 1,270 ft), 5.7 mi from Monticello. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Monticello
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty, NY | 11 mi | May 9 | Oct 5 |
| Port Jervis, NY | 19 mi | May 5 | Oct 10 |
| Middletown, NY | 20 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 22 |
| Goshen, NY | 25 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 22 |
| Walden, NY | 27 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 11 |
| Washingtonville, NY | 32 mi | May 1 | Oct 11 |
| New Paltz, NY | 32 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 27 |
| Warwick, NY | 32 mi | May 1 | Oct 12 |
| Kiryas Joel, NY | 35 mi | Apr 10 | Nov 1 |
| Monroe, NY | 35 mi | Apr 10 | Nov 1 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Monticello?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Monticello is around May 7. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 22, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 25.
When is the first frost in Monticello?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 7. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 25 and a 90% chance by October 22.
Can it frost in Monticello after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 19.
What growing zone is Monticello?
Monticello is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 12701. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze