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Will it freeze in Culpeper in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sun, Nov 8: 32°F (Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 PM EST to Mon, Nov 9, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 59°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 59°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 46°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 32°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 35°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Culpeper
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Boston 4 SE. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 19 · May 3 · May 20 | Oct 2 · Oct 13 · Oct 25 | 162 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 5 · Apr 21 · May 10 | Oct 8 · Oct 22 · Nov 4 | 184 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 23 · Apr 5 · Apr 23 | Oct 17 · Nov 1 · Nov 15 | 208 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Boston 4 SE
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Culpeper, VA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Boston 4 SE (station USC00440860, elevation 590 ft), 7.5 mi from Culpeper. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Culpeper
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orange, VA | 17 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 30 |
| Warrenton, VA | 21 mi | Apr 9 | Nov 1 |
| Fredericksburg, VA | 30 mi | Apr 6 | Nov 1 |
| Front Royal, VA | 33 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 28 |
| Manassas, VA | 34 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 27 |
| Manassas Park, VA | 37 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 27 |
| Dumfries, VA | 37 mi | Mar 28 | Nov 8 |
| Woodstock, VA | 39 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 20 |
| Charlottesville, VA | 40 mi | Apr 2 | Nov 10 |
| Strasburg, VA | 42 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 17 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Culpeper?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Culpeper is around April 21. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 10, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 5.
When is the first frost in Culpeper?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 22. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 8 and a 90% chance by November 4.
Can it frost in Culpeper after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 3.
What growing zone is Culpeper?
Culpeper is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 0 to 5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 22701. See growing zones in Virginia.
More: all Virginia frost dates · Virginia growing zones · frost vs. freeze