Checking current alerts… View NWS forecast and alerts.
Will it freeze in Warrenton in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Warrenton during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 59°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 59°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 39°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Warrenton
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 14, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Warrenton 3 SE. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 7 · Apr 22 · May 10 | Oct 8 · Oct 21 · Nov 2 | 182 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 26 · Apr 9 · Apr 28 | Oct 18 · Nov 1 · Nov 14 | 205 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 13 · Mar 29 · Apr 11 | Nov 1 · Nov 14 · Dec 1 | 229 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Warrenton 3 SE
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Warrenton, VA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Warrenton 3 SE (station USC00448888, elevation 500 ft), 3.0 mi from Warrenton. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Warrenton
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manassas, VA | 17 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 27 |
| Manassas Park, VA | 19 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 27 |
| Culpeper, VA | 21 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 22 |
| Front Royal, VA | 25 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 28 |
| Dumfries, VA | 28 mi | Mar 28 | Nov 8 |
| Herndon, VA | 28 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 24 |
| Fairfax, VA | 29 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 29 |
| Purcellville, VA | 29 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 25 |
| Leesburg, VA | 30 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 25 |
| Vienna, VA | 32 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 29 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Warrenton?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Warrenton is around April 9. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 28, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 26.
When is the first frost in Warrenton?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 1. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 18 and a 90% chance by November 14.
Can it frost in Warrenton after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 22.
What growing zone is Warrenton?
Warrenton is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 0 to 5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 20186. See growing zones in Virginia.
More: all Virginia frost dates · Virginia growing zones · frost vs. freeze