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Will it freeze in Manassas in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Manassas during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 60°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 60°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 38°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Manassas
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 5, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Manassas. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 11 · Apr 24 · May 10 | Oct 6 · Oct 18 · Oct 30 | 177 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 30 · Apr 12 · Apr 24 | Oct 13 · Oct 27 · Nov 7 | 197 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 17 · Apr 1 · Apr 14 | Oct 24 · Nov 5 · Nov 19 | 218 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Manassas
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Manassas, VA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Manassas (station USC00445204, elevation 245 ft), 1.1 mi from Manassas. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Manassas
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manassas Park, VA | 2.5 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 27 |
| Fairfax, VA | 12 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 29 |
| Dumfries, VA | 15 mi | Mar 28 | Nov 8 |
| Vienna, VA | 16 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 29 |
| Herndon, VA | 16 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 24 |
| Warrenton, VA | 17 mi | Apr 9 | Nov 1 |
| Falls Church, VA | 19 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 31 |
| Alexandria, VA | 22 mi | Mar 24 | Nov 18 |
| Leesburg, VA | 25 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 25 |
| Washington, DC | 27 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 8 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Manassas?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Manassas is around April 12. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 24, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 30.
When is the first frost in Manassas?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 27. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 13 and a 90% chance by November 7.
Can it frost in Manassas after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 24.
What growing zone is Manassas?
Manassas is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 0 to 5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 20110. See growing zones in Virginia.
More: all Virginia frost dates · Virginia growing zones · UV index today in Manassas · frost vs. freeze