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Will it freeze in Fredericksburg in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Fredericksburg during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 62°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 62°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 50°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 39°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Fredericksburg
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 11, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Fredericksburg Sewage. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 5 · Apr 21 · May 8 | Oct 10 · Oct 22 · Nov 3 | 184 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 23 · Apr 6 · Apr 22 | Oct 19 · Nov 1 · Nov 12 | 207 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 11 · Mar 27 · Apr 8 | Oct 30 · Nov 11 · Nov 28 | 230 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Fredericksburg Sewage
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Fredericksburg, VA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Fredericksburg Sewage (station USC00443204, elevation 60 ft), 2.1 mi from Fredericksburg. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Fredericksburg
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dumfries, VA | 21 mi | Mar 28 | Nov 8 |
| Culpeper, VA | 30 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 22 |
| Manassas, VA | 31 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 27 |
| Manassas Park, VA | 32 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 27 |
| La Plata, MD | 33 mi | Apr 17 | Oct 27 |
| Warrenton, VA | 34 mi | Apr 9 | Nov 1 |
| Orange, VA | 34 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 30 |
| Ashland, VA | 37 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 29 |
| Fairfax, VA | 40 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 29 |
| Alexandria, VA | 42 mi | Mar 24 | Nov 18 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Fredericksburg?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Fredericksburg is around April 6. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 22, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 23.
When is the first frost in Fredericksburg?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 1. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 19 and a 90% chance by November 12.
Can it frost in Fredericksburg after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 21.
What growing zone is Fredericksburg?
Fredericksburg is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 5 to 10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 22401. See growing zones in Virginia.
More: all Virginia frost dates · Virginia growing zones · UV index today in Fredericksburg · frost vs. freeze