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Will it freeze in Orange in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Orange during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 60°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 60°F Above 36°F · Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 46°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Orange
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 8, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Piedmont Rsch Station. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 6 · Apr 21 · May 9 | Oct 9 · Oct 21 · Nov 1 | 180 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 24 · Apr 7 · Apr 26 | Oct 17 · Oct 30 · Nov 13 | 204 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 12 · Mar 27 · Apr 11 | Oct 27 · Nov 8 · Nov 26 | 226 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Piedmont Rsch Station
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Orange, VA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Piedmont Rsch Station (station USC00446712, elevation 520 ft), 1.1 mi from Orange. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Orange
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Culpeper, VA | 17 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 22 |
| Charlottesville, VA | 25 mi | Apr 2 | Nov 10 |
| Fredericksburg, VA | 34 mi | Apr 6 | Nov 1 |
| Warrenton, VA | 37 mi | Apr 9 | Nov 1 |
| Harrisonburg, VA | 43 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 23 |
| Waynesboro, VA | 45 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 23 |
| Front Royal, VA | 47 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 28 |
| Bridgewater, VA | 47 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 23 |
| Dumfries, VA | 48 mi | Mar 28 | Nov 8 |
| Woodstock, VA | 48 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 20 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Orange?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Orange is around April 7. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 26, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 24.
When is the first frost in Orange?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 30. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 17 and a 90% chance by November 13.
Can it frost in Orange after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 21.
What growing zone is Orange?
Orange is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 0 to 5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 22989. See growing zones in Virginia.
More: all Virginia frost dates · Virginia growing zones · frost vs. freeze