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Will it freeze in Marlin in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Marlin during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 55°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 55°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 53°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 50°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 46°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 46°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 50°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Marlin
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 18, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Marlin. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 14 · Apr 3 · Apr 25 | Oct 21 · Nov 2 · Nov 16 | 211 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 27 · Mar 21 · Apr 10 | Oct 29 · Nov 9 · Nov 26 | 234 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 13 · Mar 8 · Mar 31 | Nov 3 · Nov 18 · Dec 6 | 256 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Marlin
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Marlin, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Marlin (station USC00415611, elevation 407 ft), 1.0 mi from Marlin. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Marlin
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robinson, TX | 17 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| Hewitt, TX | 21 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| Bellmead, TX | 24 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| Woodway, TX | 24 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| Waco, TX | 25 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| Lacy-Lakeview, TX | 25 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| Cameron, TX | 31 mi | Mar 6 | Nov 23 |
| McGregor, TX | 32 mi | Mar 15 | Nov 18 |
| Temple, TX | 32 mi | Mar 14 | Nov 20 |
| Mexia, TX | 35 mi | Mar 13 | Nov 22 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Marlin?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Marlin is around March 21. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 10, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 27.
When is the first frost in Marlin?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 9. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 29 and a 90% chance by November 26.
Can it frost in Marlin after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 3.
What growing zone is Marlin?
Marlin is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 15 to 20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 76661. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze