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Will it freeze in Waco in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Waco during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 56°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 56°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 54°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 52°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 48°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 51°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 53°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Waco
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 3, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Waco Dam. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 2 · Mar 24 · Apr 13 | Oct 26 · Nov 10 · Nov 27 | 231 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 17 · Mar 9 · Apr 4 | Nov 2 · Nov 20 · Dec 9 | 256 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Jan 27 · Feb 25 · Mar 21 | Nov 12 · Dec 3 · Jan 1 | 282 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Waco Dam
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Waco, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Waco Dam (station USC00419417, elevation 495 ft), 3.4 mi from Waco. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Waco
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Woodway, TX | 5.0 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| Bellmead, TX | 6.8 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| Lacy-Lakeview, TX | 6.8 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| Hewitt, TX | 7.5 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| Robinson, TX | 8.1 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| McGregor, TX | 17 mi | Mar 15 | Nov 18 |
| Marlin, TX | 25 mi | Mar 21 | Nov 9 |
| Hillsboro, TX | 32 mi | Mar 21 | Nov 10 |
| Temple, TX | 34 mi | Mar 14 | Nov 20 |
| Gatesville, TX | 34 mi | Mar 19 | Nov 9 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Waco?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Waco is around March 9. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 4, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 17.
When is the first frost in Waco?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 20. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 2 and a 90% chance by December 9.
Can it frost in Waco after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 24.
What growing zone is Waco?
Waco is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 15 to 20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 76710. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · UV index today in Waco · frost vs. freeze