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Will it freeze in Mexia in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Mexia during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 54°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 54°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 52°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 50°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 45°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 46°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 50°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Mexia
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 4, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Mexia. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 7 · Mar 29 · Apr 15 | Oct 28 · Nov 10 · Nov 29 | 227 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 21 · Mar 13 · Apr 4 | Nov 4 · Nov 22 · Dec 10 | 251 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Jan 28 · Feb 28 · Mar 24 | Nov 11 · Dec 4 · Dec 30 | 281 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Mexia
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Mexia, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Mexia (station USC00415869, elevation 503 ft), 4.7 mi from Mexia. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Mexia
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corsicana, TX | 28 mi | Mar 14 | Nov 16 |
| Marlin, TX | 35 mi | Mar 21 | Nov 9 |
| Bellmead, TX | 36 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| Lacy-Lakeview, TX | 37 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| Robinson, TX | 41 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| Waco, TX | 42 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| Hillsboro, TX | 43 mi | Mar 21 | Nov 10 |
| Hewitt, TX | 45 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
| Ennis, TX | 45 mi | Mar 8 | Nov 21 |
| Woodway, TX | 46 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 20 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Mexia?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Mexia is around March 13. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 4, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 21.
When is the first frost in Mexia?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 22. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 4 and a 90% chance by December 10.
Can it frost in Mexia after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 29.
What growing zone is Mexia?
Mexia is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 15 to 20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 76667. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze