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Will it freeze in East Rochester in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Wed, Nov 11: 32°F (Wed, Nov 11, 6:00 PM EST to Thu, Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 49°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 42°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Sat, Nov 7 38°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 32°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in East Rochester
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Victor 2NW. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 29 · May 12 · May 25 | Sep 22 · Oct 4 · Oct 19 | 144 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 19 · May 2 · May 18 | Oct 2 · Oct 17 · Nov 1 | 167 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 6 · Apr 20 · May 6 | Oct 14 · Nov 1 · Nov 14 | 192 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Victor 2NW
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for East Rochester, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Victor 2NW (station USC00308839, elevation 588 ft), 7.7 mi from East Rochester. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near East Rochester
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fairport, NY | 2.5 mi | May 2 | Oct 17 |
| Rochester, NY | 7.5 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 25 |
| Webster, NY | 8.1 mi | May 1 | Oct 20 |
| Canandaigua, NY | 19 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 22 |
| Hilton, NY | 20 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 30 |
| Newark, NY | 21 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 21 |
| Brockport, NY | 24 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 30 |
| Geneseo, NY | 27 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 17 |
| Geneva, NY | 30 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 21 |
| Batavia, NY | 36 mi | May 3 | Oct 16 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in East Rochester?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in East Rochester is around May 2. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 18, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 19.
When is the first frost in East Rochester?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 17. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 2 and a 90% chance by November 1.
Can it frost in East Rochester after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 12.
What growing zone is East Rochester?
East Rochester is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 14445. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze