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Will it freeze in Aurora in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Aurora during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 43°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 43°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Slight Chance Drizzle
- Fri, Nov 6 34°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy then Patchy Frost
- Sat, Nov 7 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear then Areas Of Frost
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Clear then Patchy Frost
- Mon, Nov 9 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 44°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Aurora
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Billings 1SW. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 10 · Apr 28 · May 11 | Oct 1 · Oct 14 · Oct 26 | 169 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 30 · Apr 15 · May 2 | Oct 11 · Oct 23 · Nov 4 | 189 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 18 · Apr 4 · Apr 19 | Oct 20 · Nov 1 · Nov 16 | 211 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Billings 1SW
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Aurora, MO come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Billings 1SW (station USC00230657, elevation 1,310 ft), 9.9 mi from Aurora. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Aurora
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monett, MO | 12 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 26 |
| Republic, MO | 22 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 27 |
| Battlefield, MO | 22 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 27 |
| Nixa, MO | 24 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 23 |
| Willard, MO | 28 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 27 |
| Ozark, MO | 28 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 23 |
| Springfield, MO | 28 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 27 |
| Branson, MO | 34 mi | Apr 8 | Nov 2 |
| Carthage, MO | 35 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 27 |
| Rogersville, MO | 37 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 13 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Aurora?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Aurora is around April 15. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 2, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 30.
When is the first frost in Aurora?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 23. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 11 and a 90% chance by November 4.
Can it frost in Aurora after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 28.
What growing zone is Aurora?
Aurora is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 0 to 5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 65605. See growing zones in Missouri.
More: all Missouri frost dates · Missouri growing zones · frost vs. freeze