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Will it freeze in Carthage in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Carthage during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 42°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 42°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Slight Chance Drizzle
- Fri, Nov 6 34°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy then Patchy Frost
- Sat, Nov 7 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear then Areas Of Frost
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 46°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Carthage
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 5, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Carthage. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 31 · Apr 16 · May 2 | Oct 3 · Oct 17 · Nov 1 | 183 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 20 · Apr 4 · Apr 20 | Oct 13 · Oct 27 · Nov 12 | 204 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 7 · Mar 27 · Apr 10 | Oct 21 · Nov 5 · Nov 24 | 223 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Carthage
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Carthage, MO come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Carthage (station USC00231356, elevation 978 ft), 2.3 mi from Carthage. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Carthage
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Webb City, MO | 8.1 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 27 |
| Joplin, MO | 11 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 27 |
| Carl Junction, MO | 12 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 27 |
| Neosho, MO | 21 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 31 |
| Monett, MO | 27 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 26 |
| Pittsburg, KS | 27 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 30 |
| Miami, OK | 35 mi | Apr 6 | Oct 27 |
| Aurora, MO | 35 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 23 |
| Grove, OK | 47 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 20 |
| Bella Vista, AR | 47 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 26 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Carthage?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Carthage is around April 4. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 20, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 20.
When is the first frost in Carthage?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 27. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 13 and a 90% chance by November 12.
Can it frost in Carthage after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 16.
What growing zone is Carthage?
Carthage is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 0 to 5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 64836. See growing zones in Missouri.
More: all Missouri frost dates · Missouri growing zones · frost vs. freeze