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Will it freeze in Republic in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 32°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 40°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
3 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 40°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Slight Chance Drizzle
- Fri, Nov 6 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy then Areas Of Frost
- Sat, Nov 7 32°F Freeze · Widespread Frost
- Sun, Nov 8 35°F Frost possible · Clear then Patchy Frost
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 43°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 43°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Republic
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 4, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Springfield. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 4 · Apr 22 · May 6 | Oct 4 · Oct 18 · Oct 29 | 178 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 26 · Apr 9 · Apr 27 | Oct 14 · Oct 27 · Nov 9 | 199 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 13 · Mar 30 · Apr 14 | Oct 21 · Nov 4 · Nov 20 | 219 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Springfield
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Republic, MO come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Springfield (station USW00013995, elevation 1,278 ft), 4.7 mi from Republic. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Republic
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Battlefield, MO | 4.3 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 27 |
| Springfield, MO | 6.8 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 27 |
| Willard, MO | 8.7 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 27 |
| Nixa, MO | 11 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 23 |
| Ozark, MO | 14 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 23 |
| Rogersville, MO | 19 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 13 |
| Aurora, MO | 22 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 23 |
| Marshfield, MO | 30 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 24 |
| Bolivar, MO | 30 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 23 |
| Monett, MO | 33 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 26 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Republic?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Republic is around April 9. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 27, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 26.
When is the first frost in Republic?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 27. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 14 and a 90% chance by November 9.
Can it frost in Republic after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 22.
What growing zone is Republic?
Republic is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 65619. See growing zones in Missouri.
More: all Missouri frost dates · Missouri growing zones · frost vs. freeze