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Will it freeze in Saginaw in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 31°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM EST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 38°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 38°F Above 36°F · Chance Light Rain
- Fri, Nov 6 35°F Frost possible · Chance Light Rain
- Sat, Nov 7 31°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 35°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Saginaw
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 3, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Saginaw #3. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 26 · May 7 · May 23 | Sep 27 · Oct 9 · Oct 22 | 153 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 14 · Apr 29 · May 13 | Oct 5 · Oct 21 · Nov 2 | 175 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 2 · Apr 17 · May 1 | Oct 20 · Nov 3 · Nov 16 | 200 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Saginaw #3
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Saginaw, MI come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Saginaw #3 (station USC00207222, elevation 600 ft), 0.4 mi from Saginaw. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Saginaw
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frankenmuth, MI | 12 mi | May 3 | Oct 12 |
| Bay City, MI | 12 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 20 |
| Midland, MI | 20 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 16 |
| Flushing, MI | 25 mi | May 3 | Oct 13 |
| Flint, MI | 30 mi | May 3 | Oct 13 |
| Owosso, MI | 31 mi | May 1 | Oct 15 |
| Swartz Creek, MI | 32 mi | May 6 | Oct 10 |
| St. Louis, MI | 33 mi | May 1 | Oct 13 |
| Burton, MI | 34 mi | May 8 | Oct 5 |
| Davison, MI | 35 mi | May 8 | Oct 5 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Saginaw?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Saginaw is around April 29. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 13, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 14.
When is the first frost in Saginaw?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 21. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 5 and a 90% chance by November 2.
Can it frost in Saginaw after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 7.
What growing zone is Saginaw?
Saginaw is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 48602. See growing zones in Michigan.
More: all Michigan frost dates · Michigan growing zones · UV index today in Saginaw · frost vs. freeze