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Will it freeze in Swartz Creek in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 30°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM EST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 37°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 37°F Above 36°F · Chance Light Rain
- Fri, Nov 6 33°F Frost possible · Chance Light Rain
- Sat, Nov 7 30°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 32°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Swartz Creek
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 23, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Flint Bishop Intl Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 2 · May 18 · Jun 2 | Sep 15 · Sep 28 · Oct 10 | 132 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 21 · May 6 · May 23 | Sep 26 · Oct 10 · Oct 25 | 155 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 11 · Apr 26 · May 13 | Oct 6 · Oct 23 · Nov 6 | 179 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Flint Bishop Intl Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Swartz Creek, MI come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Flint Bishop Intl Airport (station USW00014826, elevation 770 ft), 3.4 mi from Swartz Creek. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Swartz Creek
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flushing, MI | 6.8 mi | May 3 | Oct 13 |
| Flint, MI | 7.5 mi | May 3 | Oct 13 |
| Grand Blanc, MI | 9.9 mi | May 1 | Oct 14 |
| Burton, MI | 11 mi | May 8 | Oct 5 |
| Fenton, MI | 12 mi | May 3 | Oct 12 |
| Holly, MI | 15 mi | May 3 | Oct 12 |
| Davison, MI | 16 mi | May 8 | Oct 5 |
| Owosso, MI | 18 mi | May 1 | Oct 15 |
| Howell, MI | 25 mi | May 4 | Oct 7 |
| Lapeer, MI | 25 mi | May 4 | Oct 14 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Swartz Creek?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Swartz Creek is around May 6. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 23, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 21.
When is the first frost in Swartz Creek?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 10. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 26 and a 90% chance by October 25.
Can it frost in Swartz Creek after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 18.
What growing zone is Swartz Creek?
Swartz Creek is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 48473. See growing zones in Michigan.
More: all Michigan frost dates · Michigan growing zones · frost vs. freeze