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Will it freeze in Davison in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 29°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM EST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 37°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 37°F Above 36°F · Light Rain Likely
- Fri, Nov 6 33°F Frost possible · Chance Light Rain
- Sat, Nov 7 29°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 31°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 33°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 32°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Davison
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 19, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Burton 4N. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 6 · May 20 · Jun 3 | Sep 12 · Sep 25 · Oct 7 | 126 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 28 · May 8 · May 22 | Sep 22 · Oct 5 · Oct 19 | 148 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 18 · Apr 29 · May 13 | Oct 4 · Oct 19 · Nov 1 | 170 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Burton 4N
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Davison, MI come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Burton 4N (station USC00201150, elevation 757 ft), 4.5 mi from Davison. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Davison
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burton, MI | 5.6 mi | May 8 | Oct 5 |
| Grand Blanc, MI | 8.7 mi | May 1 | Oct 14 |
| Flint, MI | 8.7 mi | May 3 | Oct 13 |
| Lapeer, MI | 9.9 mi | May 4 | Oct 14 |
| Swartz Creek, MI | 16 mi | May 6 | Oct 10 |
| Flushing, MI | 17 mi | May 3 | Oct 13 |
| Holly, MI | 17 mi | May 3 | Oct 12 |
| Fenton, MI | 19 mi | May 3 | Oct 12 |
| Frankenmuth, MI | 24 mi | May 3 | Oct 12 |
| Auburn Hills, MI | 29 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 22 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Davison?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Davison is around May 8. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 22, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 28.
When is the first frost in Davison?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 5. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 22 and a 90% chance by October 19.
Can it frost in Davison after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 20.
What growing zone is Davison?
Davison is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 48423. See growing zones in Michigan.
More: all Michigan frost dates · Michigan growing zones · frost vs. freeze