Checking current alerts… View NWS forecast and alerts.
Will it freeze in Bay City in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 29°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM EST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 35°F. Frost possible.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
6 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 35°F Frost possible · Chance Light Rain
- Fri, Nov 6 33°F Frost possible · Light Rain Likely
- Sat, Nov 7 29°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 32°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 33°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Bay City
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Essexville. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 24 · May 6 · May 22 | Sep 24 · Oct 7 · Oct 20 | 151 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 15 · Apr 27 · May 11 | Oct 5 · Oct 20 · Nov 2 | 173 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 5 · Apr 17 · Apr 30 | Oct 18 · Nov 1 · Nov 14 | 197 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Essexville
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Bay City, MI come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Essexville (station USC00202631, elevation 588 ft), 2.8 mi from Bay City. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Bay City
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saginaw, MI | 12 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 21 |
| Midland, MI | 17 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 16 |
| Frankenmuth, MI | 19 mi | May 3 | Oct 12 |
| Flushing, MI | 37 mi | May 3 | Oct 13 |
| St. Louis, MI | 39 mi | May 1 | Oct 13 |
| Flint, MI | 40 mi | May 3 | Oct 13 |
| Alma, MI | 41 mi | May 1 | Oct 13 |
| Davison, MI | 43 mi | May 8 | Oct 5 |
| Burton, MI | 43 mi | May 8 | Oct 5 |
| Swartz Creek, MI | 43 mi | May 6 | Oct 10 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Bay City?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Bay City is around April 27. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 11, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 15.
When is the first frost in Bay City?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 20. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 5 and a 90% chance by November 2.
Can it frost in Bay City after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 6.
What growing zone is Bay City?
Bay City is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 48708. See growing zones in Michigan.
More: all Michigan frost dates · Michigan growing zones · UV index today in Bay City · frost vs. freeze