Checking current alerts… View NWS forecast and alerts.
Will it freeze in Victoria in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Victoria during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 64°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 64°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 60°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 57°F Above 36°F · Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
- Sun, Nov 8 52°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 52°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 55°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 57°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Victoria
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 31, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Victoria Fire Dept #5. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 3 · Mar 3 · Mar 31 | Nov 6 · Nov 27 · Dec 20 | 268 days |
| 32°F freeze | Jan 17 · Feb 14 · Mar 13 | Nov 17 · Dec 9 · Jan 8 | 299 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 26 · Jan 28 · Mar 1 | Dec 2 · Dec 31 · Feb 2 | 337 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Victoria Fire Dept #5
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Victoria, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Victoria Fire Dept #5 (station USC00419361, elevation 101 ft), 3.0 mi from Victoria. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Victoria
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edna, TX | 23 mi | Feb 18 | Dec 4 |
| Port Lavaca, TX | 26 mi | Feb 1 | Dec 21 |
| Cuero, TX | 26 mi | Mar 2 | Nov 27 |
| Yoakum, TX | 34 mi | Mar 2 | Nov 30 |
| El Campo, TX | 50 mi | Feb 23 | Dec 5 |
| Rockport, TX | 54 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 25 |
| Beeville, TX | 55 mi | Feb 17 | Dec 8 |
| Gonzales, TX | 55 mi | Feb 26 | Nov 28 |
| Bay City, TX | 63 mi | Feb 20 | Dec 3 |
| Sinton, TX | 63 mi | Feb 1 | Dec 17 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Victoria?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Victoria is around February 14. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 13, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after January 17.
When is the first frost in Victoria?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 9. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 17 and a 90% chance by January 8.
Can it frost in Victoria after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 3.
What growing zone is Victoria?
Victoria is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 77901. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · UV index today in Victoria · frost vs. freeze