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Will it freeze in Breckenridge in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Breckenridge during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 48°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 46°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 45°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 51°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 50°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Breckenridge
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 11, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Breckenridge. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 31 · Apr 17 · May 2 | Oct 10 · Oct 26 · Nov 7 | 192 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 15 · Apr 4 · Apr 22 | Oct 21 · Nov 3 · Nov 16 | 213 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 1 · Mar 21 · Apr 12 | Oct 30 · Nov 11 · Nov 27 | 235 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Breckenridge
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Breckenridge, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Breckenridge (station USC00411042, elevation 1,170 ft), 0.8 mi from Breckenridge. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Breckenridge
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Graham, TX | 30 mi | Apr 1 | Nov 5 |
| Mineral Wells, TX | 48 mi | Mar 24 | Nov 10 |
| Abilene, TX | 52 mi | Mar 20 | Nov 10 |
| Stephenville, TX | 55 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 8 |
| Weatherford, TX | 66 mi | Mar 25 | Nov 8 |
| Granbury, TX | 70 mi | Mar 24 | Nov 9 |
| Brownwood, TX | 72 mi | Mar 22 | Nov 10 |
| Springtown, TX | 73 mi | Mar 13 | Nov 20 |
| Bridgeport, TX | 73 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 7 |
| Willow Park, TX | 73 mi | Mar 25 | Nov 8 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Breckenridge?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Breckenridge is around April 4. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 22, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 15.
When is the first frost in Breckenridge?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 3. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 21 and a 90% chance by November 16.
Can it frost in Breckenridge after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 17.
What growing zone is Breckenridge?
Breckenridge is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 10 to 15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 76424. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze