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Will it freeze in Alvin in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Alvin during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 60°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 60°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 61°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 56°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 52°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 52°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 54°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 55°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Alvin
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 30, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Alvin. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 4 · Mar 5 · Mar 27 | Nov 5 · Nov 23 · Dec 15 | 264 days |
| 32°F freeze | Jan 15 · Feb 14 · Mar 13 | Nov 14 · Dec 5 · Jan 8 | 298 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 23 · Jan 25 · Mar 2 | Nov 27 · Dec 30 · Feb 2 | 336 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Alvin
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Alvin, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Alvin (station USC00410204, elevation 28 ft), 4.2 mi from Alvin. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Alvin
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friendswood, TX | 6.2 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 27 |
| Santa Fe, TX | 8.1 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 14 |
| League City, TX | 8.1 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 14 |
| Manvel, TX | 9.3 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 27 |
| Webster, TX | 9.9 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 14 |
| Dickinson, TX | 11 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 14 |
| Pearland, TX | 11 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 27 |
| Nassau Bay, TX | 12 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 14 |
| Iowa Colony, TX | 12 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 27 |
| La Marque, TX | 14 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 14 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Alvin?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Alvin is around February 14. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 13, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after January 15.
When is the first frost in Alvin?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 5. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 14 and a 90% chance by January 8.
Can it frost in Alvin after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 5.
What growing zone is Alvin?
Alvin is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 77511. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · UV index today in Alvin · frost vs. freeze