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Will it freeze in McKenzie in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in McKenzie during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 45°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
3 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 45°F Above 36°F · Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 33°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 41°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in McKenzie
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 9, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Huntingdon Water Treatment Plant. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 30 · Apr 15 · Apr 30 | Oct 10 · Oct 22 · Nov 2 | 189 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 16 · Apr 2 · Apr 18 | Oct 19 · Oct 31 · Nov 13 | 211 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 1 · Mar 21 · Apr 7 | Oct 28 · Nov 9 · Nov 27 | 234 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Huntingdon Water Treatment Plant
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for McKenzie, TN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Huntingdon Water Treatment Plant (station USC00404417, elevation 440 ft), 10 mi from McKenzie. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near McKenzie
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris, TN | 16 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 31 |
| Milan, TN | 21 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 28 |
| Martin, TN | 24 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 28 |
| Medina, TN | 27 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 30 |
| Humboldt, TN | 31 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 30 |
| Murray, KY | 35 mi | Apr 5 | Nov 1 |
| Lexington, TN | 35 mi | Apr 5 | Oct 30 |
| Union City, TN | 36 mi | Apr 3 | Oct 29 |
| Jackson, TN | 38 mi | Apr 2 | Oct 29 |
| Mayfield, KY | 42 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 19 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in McKenzie?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in McKenzie is around April 2. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 18, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 16.
When is the first frost in McKenzie?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 31. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 19 and a 90% chance by November 13.
Can it frost in McKenzie after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 15.
What growing zone is McKenzie?
McKenzie is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 5 to 10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 38201. See growing zones in Tennessee.
More: all Tennessee frost dates · Tennessee growing zones · frost vs. freeze