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Will it freeze in Lexington in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 31°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM CST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 43°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 43°F Above 36°F · Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 31°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 31°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 33°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 38°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Lexington
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 8, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Lexington. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 1 · Apr 17 · May 1 | Oct 9 · Oct 22 · Nov 3 | 188 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 17 · Apr 5 · Apr 21 | Oct 18 · Oct 30 · Nov 12 | 208 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 4 · Mar 24 · Apr 9 | Oct 26 · Nov 8 · Nov 27 | 230 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Lexington
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Lexington, TN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Lexington (station USC00405210, elevation 540 ft), 1.0 mi from Lexington. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Lexington
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henderson, TN | 21 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 25 |
| Jackson, TN | 26 mi | Apr 2 | Oct 29 |
| Medina, TN | 26 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 30 |
| Milan, TN | 28 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 28 |
| Savannah, TN | 30 mi | Mar 31 | Nov 1 |
| Humboldt, TN | 32 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 30 |
| McKenzie, TN | 35 mi | Apr 2 | Oct 31 |
| Bolivar, TN | 44 mi | Apr 3 | Oct 30 |
| Paris, TN | 45 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 31 |
| Corinth, MS | 48 mi | Apr 2 | Nov 1 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Lexington?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Lexington is around April 5. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 21, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 17.
When is the first frost in Lexington?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 30. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 18 and a 90% chance by November 12.
Can it frost in Lexington after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 17.
What growing zone is Lexington?
Lexington is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 5 to 10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 38351. See growing zones in Tennessee.
More: all Tennessee frost dates · Tennessee growing zones · frost vs. freeze