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Will it freeze in Manchester in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 32°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM CST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 42°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 42°F Above 36°F · Areas Of Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 32°F Freeze · Mostly Clear then Patchy Fog
- Sun, Nov 8 32°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 38°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Manchester
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Manchester #2. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 11 · Apr 26 · May 11 | Oct 4 · Oct 15 · Oct 27 | 172 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 27 · Apr 13 · Apr 30 | Oct 11 · Oct 24 · Nov 5 | 192 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 13 · Apr 1 · Apr 18 | Oct 19 · Nov 1 · Nov 15 | 214 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Manchester #2
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Manchester, TN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Manchester #2 (station USC00405595, elevation 1,070 ft), 3.7 mi from Manchester. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Manchester
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tullahoma, TN | 11 mi | Apr 6 | Oct 30 |
| Winchester, TN | 19 mi | Apr 6 | Oct 29 |
| Lynchburg, Moore County, TN | 20 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 25 |
| Shelbyville, TN | 22 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| McMinnville, TN | 22 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 30 |
| Murfreesboro, TN | 34 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 27 |
| Fayetteville, TN | 35 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 28 |
| Smithville, TN | 37 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 22 |
| Dunlap, TN | 39 mi | Mar 26 | Nov 8 |
| Lewisburg, TN | 40 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 22 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Manchester?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Manchester is around April 13. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 30, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 27.
When is the first frost in Manchester?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 24. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 11 and a 90% chance by November 5.
Can it frost in Manchester after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 26.
What growing zone is Manchester?
Manchester is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 5 to 10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 37355. See growing zones in Tennessee.
More: all Tennessee frost dates · Tennessee growing zones · frost vs. freeze