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Will it freeze in Smithville in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 30°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM CST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 41°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
6 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 41°F Above 36°F · Areas Of Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 30°F Freeze · Patchy Fog
- Sun, Nov 8 31°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 33°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Smithville
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Smithville 2 SE. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 16 · Apr 30 · May 14 | Oct 1 · Oct 13 · Oct 26 | 167 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 2 · Apr 18 · May 2 | Oct 10 · Oct 22 · Nov 4 | 187 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 18 · Apr 4 · Apr 20 | Oct 19 · Nov 1 · Nov 13 | 209 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Smithville 2 SE
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Smithville, TN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Smithville 2 SE (station USC00408405, elevation 890 ft), 2.1 mi from Smithville. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Smithville
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| McMinnville, TN | 19 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 30 |
| Sparta, TN | 20 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 23 |
| Cookeville, TN | 22 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 25 |
| Lebanon, TN | 34 mi | Apr 6 | Oct 28 |
| Murfreesboro, TN | 34 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 27 |
| Hartsville, TN | 35 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 26 |
| Manchester, TN | 37 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 24 |
| Smyrna, TN | 40 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 21 |
| Lafayette, TN | 41 mi | Apr 3 | Nov 1 |
| La Vergne, TN | 42 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 21 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Smithville?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Smithville is around April 18. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 2, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 2.
When is the first frost in Smithville?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 22. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 10 and a 90% chance by November 4.
Can it frost in Smithville after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 30.
What growing zone is Smithville?
Smithville is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 5 to 10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 37166. See growing zones in Tennessee.
More: all Tennessee frost dates · Tennessee growing zones · frost vs. freeze