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Will it freeze in McMinnville in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 31°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM CST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 41°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 41°F Above 36°F · Areas Of Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 31°F Freeze · Areas Of Fog
- Sun, Nov 8 31°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 33°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in McMinnville
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 7, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Mc Minnville. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 4 · Apr 19 · May 5 | Oct 8 · Oct 20 · Nov 1 | 182 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 20 · Apr 7 · Apr 23 | Oct 16 · Oct 30 · Nov 10 | 203 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 5 · Mar 27 · Apr 13 | Oct 25 · Nov 7 · Nov 25 | 227 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Mc Minnville
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for McMinnville, TN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Mc Minnville (station USC00405882, elevation 940 ft), 1.0 mi from McMinnville. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near McMinnville
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smithville, TN | 19 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 22 |
| Manchester, TN | 22 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 24 |
| Sparta, TN | 24 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 23 |
| Dunlap, TN | 31 mi | Mar 26 | Nov 8 |
| Tullahoma, TN | 33 mi | Apr 6 | Oct 30 |
| Cookeville, TN | 35 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 25 |
| Murfreesboro, TN | 38 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 27 |
| Winchester, TN | 39 mi | Apr 6 | Oct 29 |
| Shelbyville, TN | 40 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Lynchburg, Moore County, TN | 42 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 25 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in McMinnville?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in McMinnville is around April 7. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 23, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 20.
When is the first frost in McMinnville?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 30. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 16 and a 90% chance by November 10.
Can it frost in McMinnville after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 19.
What growing zone is McMinnville?
McMinnville is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 5 to 10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 37110. See growing zones in Tennessee.
More: all Tennessee frost dates · Tennessee growing zones · frost vs. freeze