Checking current alerts… View NWS forecast and alerts.
Will it freeze in Mitchell in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 30°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 33°F. Frost possible.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 33°F Frost possible · Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 30°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 38°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Mitchell
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 16, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Mitchell 2 N. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 30 · May 11 · May 25 | Sep 15 · Sep 27 · Oct 10 | 139 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 19 · May 2 · May 15 | Sep 23 · Oct 6 · Oct 19 | 156 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 9 · Apr 21 · May 4 | Sep 30 · Oct 16 · Oct 28 | 175 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Mitchell 2 N
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Mitchell, SD come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Mitchell 2 N (station USC00395671, elevation 1,250 ft), 1.2 mi from Mitchell. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Mitchell
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huron, SD | 45 mi | May 6 | Oct 2 |
| Madison, SD | 50 mi | May 5 | Sep 30 |
| Tea, SD | 64 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 13 |
| Yankton, SD | 66 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 11 |
| Sioux Falls, SD | 66 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 13 |
| Harrisburg, SD | 70 mi | May 2 | Oct 2 |
| Brandon, SD | 73 mi | May 1 | Oct 6 |
| Brookings, SD | 74 mi | May 6 | Oct 1 |
| Vermillion, SD | 86 mi | May 3 | Oct 3 |
| Watertown, SD | 93 mi | May 7 | Sep 30 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Mitchell?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Mitchell is around May 2. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 15, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 19.
When is the first frost in Mitchell?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 6. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 23 and a 90% chance by October 19.
Can it frost in Mitchell after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 11.
What growing zone is Mitchell?
Mitchell is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −20 to −15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 57301. See growing zones in South Dakota.
More: all South Dakota frost dates · South Dakota growing zones · frost vs. freeze