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Will it freeze in Madison in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 31°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 31°F. Freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 31°F Freeze · Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 30°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 38°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Madison
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 10, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Madison 2SE. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 2 · May 14 · May 29 | Sep 10 · Sep 23 · Oct 5 | 130 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 22 · May 5 · May 18 | Sep 18 · Sep 30 · Oct 13 | 148 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 12 · Apr 27 · May 10 | Sep 26 · Oct 10 · Oct 23 | 166 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Madison 2SE
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Madison, SD come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Madison 2SE (station USC00395090, elevation 1,643 ft), 1.4 mi from Madison. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Madison
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brookings, SD | 26 mi | May 6 | Oct 1 |
| Sioux Falls, SD | 37 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 13 |
| Brandon, SD | 39 mi | May 1 | Oct 6 |
| Tea, SD | 40 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 13 |
| Harrisburg, SD | 44 mi | May 2 | Oct 2 |
| Mitchell, SD | 50 mi | May 2 | Oct 6 |
| Huron, SD | 60 mi | May 6 | Oct 2 |
| Watertown, SD | 62 mi | May 7 | Sep 30 |
| Marshall, MN | 72 mi | May 5 | Oct 3 |
| Yankton, SD | 78 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 11 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Madison?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Madison is around May 5. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 18, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 22.
When is the first frost in Madison?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around September 30. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 18 and a 90% chance by October 13.
Can it frost in Madison after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 14.
What growing zone is Madison?
Madison is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 4b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −25 to −20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 57042. See growing zones in South Dakota.
More: all South Dakota frost dates · South Dakota growing zones · frost vs. freeze