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Will it freeze in Medina in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Medina during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 50°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 50°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 41°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Sat, Nov 7 38°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 41°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Medina
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 2, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Albion. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 29 · May 12 · May 26 | Sep 25 · Oct 6 · Oct 21 | 148 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 19 · May 1 · May 16 | Oct 4 · Oct 20 · Nov 3 | 170 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 6 · Apr 20 · May 4 | Oct 16 · Nov 2 · Nov 16 | 195 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Albion
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Medina, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Albion (station USC00300055, elevation 472 ft), 9.2 mi from Medina. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Medina
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albion, NY | 9.9 mi | May 1 | Oct 20 |
| Lockport, NY | 16 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 26 |
| Batavia, NY | 19 mi | May 3 | Oct 16 |
| Brockport, NY | 22 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 30 |
| Williamsville, NY | 25 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Lancaster, NY | 26 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| Depew, NY | 27 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 26 |
| North Tonawanda, NY | 27 mi | May 6 | Oct 15 |
| Tonawanda, NY | 29 mi | May 6 | Oct 15 |
| Kenmore, NY | 30 mi | May 6 | Oct 15 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Medina?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Medina is around May 1. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 16, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 19.
When is the first frost in Medina?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 20. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 4 and a 90% chance by November 3.
Can it frost in Medina after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 12.
What growing zone is Medina?
Medina is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 14103. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze