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Will it freeze in Taos in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 29°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST).
Tonight: forecast low 29°F. Freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
7 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 29°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 28°F Hard freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 27°F Hard freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 30°F Freeze · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 32°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 32°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Taos
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 10, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Taos. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 20 · May 31 · Jun 11 | Sep 15 · Sep 26 · Oct 5 | 117 days |
| 32°F freeze | May 7 · May 19 · May 31 | Sep 23 · Oct 3 · Oct 14 | 136 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 23 · May 7 · May 20 | Sep 29 · Oct 10 · Oct 21 | 156 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Taos
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Taos, NM come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Taos (station USC00298668, elevation 6,965 ft), 0.4 mi from Taos. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Taos
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Española, NM | 38 mi | May 11 | Oct 6 |
| Santa Fe, NM | 55 mi | May 14 | Oct 6 |
| Las Vegas, NM | 58 mi | May 24 | Sep 30 |
| Raton, NM | 72 mi | May 19 | Sep 29 |
| Alamosa, CO | 77 mi | May 30 | Sep 17 |
| Trinidad, CO | 81 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 15 |
| Bernalillo, NM | 92 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 23 |
| Edgewood, NM | 94 mi | May 9 | Oct 9 |
| Rio Rancho, NM | 99 mi | Apr 8 | Nov 1 |
| Corrales, NM | 99 mi | Apr 8 | Nov 1 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Taos?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Taos is around May 19. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 31, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after May 7.
When is the first frost in Taos?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 3. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 23 and a 90% chance by October 14.
Can it frost in Taos after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 31.
What growing zone is Taos?
Taos is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −15 to −10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 87529. See growing zones in New Mexico.
More: all New Mexico frost dates · New Mexico growing zones · frost vs. freeze