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Will it freeze in Raton in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 31°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST).
Tonight: forecast low 31°F. Freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 31°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 31°F Freeze · Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 34°F Frost possible · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Raton
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 6, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Raton Krtn Radio. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 18 · May 31 · Jun 13 | Sep 10 · Sep 21 · Oct 1 | 113 days |
| 32°F freeze | May 6 · May 19 · Jun 2 | Sep 18 · Sep 29 · Oct 8 | 132 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 24 · May 7 · May 20 | Sep 24 · Oct 6 · Oct 18 | 152 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Raton Krtn Radio
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Raton, NM come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Raton Krtn Radio (station USC00297280, elevation 6,640 ft), 0.2 mi from Raton. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Raton
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trinidad, CO | 20 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 15 |
| Taos, NM | 72 mi | May 19 | Oct 3 |
| Alamosa, CO | 89 mi | May 30 | Sep 17 |
| La Junta, CO | 90 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 15 |
| Pueblo, CO | 96 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 9 |
| Las Vegas, NM | 99 mi | May 24 | Sep 30 |
| Española, NM | 109 mi | May 11 | Oct 6 |
| Cañon City, CO | 116 mi | May 4 | Oct 7 |
| Santa Fe, NM | 121 mi | May 14 | Oct 6 |
| Dalhart, TX | 121 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 20 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Raton?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Raton is around May 19. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after June 2, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after May 6.
When is the first frost in Raton?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around September 29. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 18 and a 90% chance by October 8.
Can it frost in Raton after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 31.
What growing zone is Raton?
Raton is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 87740. See growing zones in New Mexico.
More: all New Mexico frost dates · New Mexico growing zones · frost vs. freeze