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Will it freeze in Virginia in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 21°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 21°F. Hard freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
7 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 21°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 22°F Hard freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 30°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 31°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 32°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 28°F Hard freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 29°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Virginia
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 13, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Eveleth Wastewater Plant. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 10 · May 24 · Jun 6 | Sep 9 · Sep 22 · Oct 3 | 120 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 30 · May 12 · May 28 | Sep 18 · Oct 1 · Oct 14 | 141 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 20 · May 3 · May 16 | Sep 29 · Oct 13 · Oct 27 | 161 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Eveleth Wastewater Plant
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Virginia, MN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Eveleth Wastewater Plant (station USC00212645, elevation 1,445 ft), 4.8 mi from Virginia. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Virginia
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hibbing, MN | 22 mi | Jun 5 | Sep 8 |
| Grand Rapids, MN | 52 mi | May 17 | Sep 24 |
| Hermantown, MN | 52 mi | May 18 | Oct 1 |
| Duluth, MN | 55 mi | May 14 | Oct 12 |
| Cloquet, MN | 55 mi | May 26 | Sep 23 |
| Superior, WI | 62 mi | May 6 | Oct 9 |
| International Falls, MN | 84 mi | May 29 | Sep 13 |
| Ashland, WI | 101 mi | May 20 | Oct 2 |
| Bemidji, MN | 111 mi | May 17 | Sep 26 |
| Brainerd, MN | 113 mi | May 8 | Sep 29 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Virginia?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Virginia is around May 12. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 28, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 30.
When is the first frost in Virginia?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 1. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 18 and a 90% chance by October 14.
Can it frost in Virginia after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 24.
What growing zone is Virginia?
Virginia is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 3b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −35 to −30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 55792. See growing zones in Minnesota.
More: all Minnesota frost dates · Minnesota growing zones · frost vs. freeze